OoMel Thoughts
As of today, November 23 2022, Bitcoin is traded around $16,000 (down from $69,000 ATH). Crypto winter is raging, we can clearly feel that. People panic. Those who are new to the crypto space, I must add. Those who've been here for a while seem feel more confident. Let's explore why.
I personally am familiar with Bitcoin since 2010. Although I'm wildly exaggerating saying I was "familiar" with Bitcoin back then. All I did was I downloaded Bitcoin wallet, started it, explored it for a couple of minutes and then forgot about it for 3 years. Once Bitcoin hit $1000 in 2013 it was all the news! I thought, okay, since I'm working in IT space I have to know what's the fuss is all about and started learning how Bitcoin works.
I can't say I was that much excited with the Bitcoin and blockchain technology, but I was seeing it as a quick way to make some money, so I bought some BTC, other coins. Also bought a mining rig with 3 GPUs, which fortunately made itself a bit profitable. Then 2014's crypto winter hit. This was the time, where I was convinced Bitcoin and crypto is done for, bubble popped and it will never recover.
Needless to say in 2017 I regretted I "sodl" :) Although it was also quite clear haven't I sold all my Bitcoins back in 2014 for some magical reason I'd surely had sold it when price went back to previous ATH of $1,100. If again I didn't sell it, I'd be selling at $2,000, $3,000 or $5,000. No way did I had the conviction to hold to new ATH of $20,000 back then.
So in 2018 it was clear to me that Bitcoin is a special thing and I have to study it in depth. Not for the profit, but I was fascinated that for all these years, since 2009, Bitcoin was chugging along like clockwork. Block after block. No matter the price. And without a central authority. Billions of dollars would be the prize to whomever would find a way to break it. Nobody was smart or powerful enough to do it.
Do you know what fascinated me as well? People on bitcointalk.org. When I was only starting to learn what Bitcoin is back in 2013 some people there knew what's going to happen. They deeply understood how Bitcoin works and what implications it will bring to this world. And ofcourse, Satoshi himself, probably the greatest genius of this century, designed Bitcoin so well, that I can't even fathom how it is possible for a mere human being to look so far into the future. There is even a theory he might be a time traveler! :) It sounds crazy, but how the hell did he know how to design Bitcoin so well from the first try?
Anyway, I guess we'll never know and would never be able to interview him.
I digressed. We were talking about the price of Bitcoin and why seasoned Bitcoin veterans from the old days don't care about price volatility. I guess I may see myself as one of them, although I'm by no means a veteran, only a spectator who's been observing this space for more than a decade. As you observe some field for long enough you start to see patterns. I've seen this pattern for at least 3 times already. Market gets overexcited for a short while, then as price decreases market gets more and more skeptical until only those who truly understand (or blindly believe in) Bitcoin are left. These people are never going to sell their holdings. At least not until Bitcoin is widely adopted and it's market cap is comparable the such of global real estate.
I personally can't say I believe in Bitcoin's success this much. Not because there are flaws in Bitcoin (it is perfect as a store of value), but because most people are stupid (sorry). And because wide Bitcoin adoption threatens governments all over the world. Once you combine governments (which are nefarious by their nature) and people (which are gullible by the most part) you get a sad world, unfortunately. The one we live in today. Honest hardworking people are unable to save for retirement because of inflation. Thus, they have to seek investment opportunities, which are not at all guaranteed to yield sufficient returns to be able to retire. These investments might also go bust providing our society with more impoverished people. Which is what governments want, because a poor man is easily manipulated.
Bitcoin can fix it. It can take away control over money from the governments. Will it do so? I don't know (for the reasons above). Thus, I'm skeptical of Bitcoins wide adoption any time soon. It might take decades and several world economy collapses until people realize it's governments in their current form are to blame. That you can't trust a government to have control over money. That we need hard money, such as Bitcoin, to build prosperous society where anybody can just focus on what they do for a living and not worry about inflation eating away their hard-earned savings
Did id digress again? Not really. All I'm trying to say is that world economy NEEDS Bitcoin in order to get healthy. It might not realize this need yet, but at least it's realizing that it's sick right now. And things are clearly moving in the right direction, albeit slowly as of now. And the price will eventually follow. I'm certain, eventually Bitcoin will cost $10,000,000 (in today's monetary value), and I can only hope that I'll live long enough to see this new world.